Central Asia’s Climate and Energy Crossroads: 5 Lessons from AIF 2025
- Chapter Zero Kazakhstan
- 6 days ago
- 5 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
Last week, Chapter Zero Kazakhstan took part in the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025, held under the theme “Connecting Minds, Shaping the Future.” Bringing together global, regional, and national leaders, the Forum addressed the critical intersections of geopolitics, climate resilience, and sustainable development.
From President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Tokayev’s opening remarks to high-level sessions on water, energy, and finance, the Forum made one thing clear: Central Asia is both on the frontline of climate vulnerability and at the forefront of opportunity. With the region warming at twice the global average, the call for decisive, regional leadership has never been more urgent. As President Tokayev underscored, the world is navigating a moment of profound uncertainty — and what matters most is our collective response.
“What matters now is how we respond. That choice lies with us – in the decisions we make and the values we uphold” - President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
Originally launched as the Astana Economic Forum in 2008, the event was rebranded in 2023 as the Astana International Forum (AIF) to reflect its expanded global agenda. The forum has since become a key platform for Central Asian leadership to shape the global conversation on energy, climate, and sustainable development.
Here are five highlights that stood out most clearly:
1. Water Mismanagement Is a Design Problem, Not a Farmer’s Fault
Central Asia holds vast water resources vital for agriculture and food security, yet up to 40% is lost due to outdated infrastructure and fragmented governance. To address this, Kanat Bozumbayev, Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, laid out Kazakhstan’s strategy to modernize its water system: digitizing 3,000 canals, adopting water-saving technologies, reforming legal frameworks, and strengthening transboundary cooperation. These reforms aim to improve both resource efficiency and climate resilience in the agricultural sector.
Mohamed Manssouri (FAO Investment Centre) stressed that water security is directly linked to food security. He welcomed Kazakhstan’s steps and reiterated FAO’s commitment to support implementation.
Development partners like Hüseyin Özhan (EBRD) emphasized the need to better utilize EU grant mechanisms and involve the private sector to scale climate-smart irrigation solutions. Stakeholders agreed that Central Asia’s water challenge is not about scarcity it’s about design, coordination, and execution.
2. Energy Transition Requires More Than Ambition
Kazakhstan has pledged to reach 15% renewables by 2030 and 50% by 2050, and has joined the Global Methane Pledge at COP28. But as national targets become more ambitious, the question is no longer whether to transition — but how fast and how well.
Alibek Zhamauov, Vice Minister of Energy, reaffirmed the country's long-term energy vision, highlighting the CBC pipeline as part of a broader strategy. Yet, he openly acknowledged that Kazakhstan’s energy grids and infrastructure are not yet ready to absorb large-scale renewables.
Several international speakers echoed this call for urgency. Peter Larden, Senior Vice President at ExxonMobil Corporation, noted that oil and gas will still make up 50% of Kazakhstan’s energy mix, making transition pathways more complex. Matthew Sagers, Vice President for Energy at S&P Global, observed a global redirection of capital from upstream fossil fuels toward electric power investment, signaling momentum but also pressure to act fast.
To close these structural and financial gaps, IRENA introduced the APRECA platform, designed to support infrastructure upgrades, hydrogen policy frameworks, and green industrialization, especially in sectors where Kazakhstan holds a strategic edge, such as uranium and critical raw materials.
“Speed matters, especially if you are serious about climate goals.” — IRENA
This strategic edge was further emphasized by Dario Liguti, Director of Sustainable Energy at the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), who noted that Kazakhstan already possesses three parts of the clean energy value chain. However, he warned that without regional cooperation and transparent policy frameworks, this potential could remain untapped.
Complementing this, Askhat Khassanov, Chair of KazMunayGas, announced new model contracts for geological exploration, aiming to attract climate-aligned investment into the energy sector and unlock Kazakhstan’s untapped reserves in a responsible way.
Still, serious challenges remain: fossil fuel lock-in, outdated grids, and fragmented institutions continue to hinder the pace and scale of the transition.
3. Finance Without Access Is Just a Promise
During the panel “COP30 and the Future of Global Climate Action,” moderated by Zulfiya Suleimenova, Advisor to the President of Kazakhstan, speakers voiced a recurring concern: climate finance is available but hard to access.
“The money exists. The will exists. The mechanisms don’t.”
Speakers included Haoliang Xu (UNDP), Andrey Mikhnev (World Bank), Arman Kassenov (Kazakhstan’s Vice-Minister of National Economy), and Babannyaz Yalakov (Turkmenistan’s Deputy Minister of Finance and Economy).
According to the Green Climate Fund, less than 3% of global climate finance reaches Central Asia.
Mr. Arman Kassenov called for a regional climate finance coordination platform, while Mr. Xu urged broader use of blended finance and better institutional readiness. Tools like JETP and CIF were seen as more than financial – they help build resilient economies and job creation pathways.
Haoliang Xu stressed that governance and partnerships are key to unlocking funds. Regional alignment on climate finance goals remains a missing link.
4. Building a Just Transition
The path to decarbonization is not just a technological challenge but a social one. Zulfiya Suleimenova emphasized that the transition must not come at the cost of communities that depend on carbon-intensive industries. In Kazakhstan’s mono-industrial towns like Temirtau and Zhanaozen, coal is not just an energy source - it is a livelihood.
"If we exit coal without creating new jobs, people will not understand." - Zulfiya Suleimenova
Her call was clear: for the energy transition to be truly sustainable, it must also be just. That means building new industries and providing training and employment to communities at risk of being left behind. A project-by-project approach is not enough. The whole economic and social fabric of these regions needs to be reimagined.
5. Inclusion Is the Missing Piece in Climate Policy
Climate solutions often center on finance and infrastructure, but forget the human dimension. Technical plans mean little if they are not accepted, understood, and championed by the public. Inclusion is not an afterthought. It’s a strategy.
At AIF 2025, Judge Mohamed Abdelsalam, Secretary-General of the Muslim Council of Elders, urged greater involvement of faith leaders and youth in the climate movement.
"The next generation is the real future." — Judge Mohamed Abdelsalam
He emphasized that spiritual and cultural leaders can drive behavioral change, especially in communities where science and policy might not resonate. His remarks also called for intergenerational cooperation, where youth are seen not just as stakeholders but as climate actors in their own right.
The LIMA Work Programme on Gender and youth participation in processes like COP29 were also mentioned as powerful examples. They show that when young people, women, and indigenous groups are given a seat at the table, climate action becomes more legitimate and more effective.
Comentários